2025 Round 11: Hawks Hoodoo Houdini'd

Brisbane Lions 14.9 (93) defeated Hawthorn Hawks 8.12 (60) at the MCG.

Straight up, I didn’t watch this match in full. I caught glimpses at the pub while catching up with friends in beautiful Kingscliff, northern New South Wales. Yep, I was on holidays, meaning I was fairly disconnected from the goings-on in the sports world (and the world in general).

I did manage to catch the highlights later, but I haven’t had the pleasure of sitting down and watching the full replay.

And damn, it looks like I missed a good one! The Lions shook off their Hawks hoodoo and accounted for them easily, and at the MCG, no less.

Because I missed the game, I can’t really provide any specific insights on the vibe of the team — but I do have the statistics and charts.

In Figure One, you’ll see that the average player ratings for Round 11 were only slightly better than the previous week, despite the much larger margin over the Hawks.

While I haven’t charted it explicitly, it’s likely these average player ratings correlate more closely with the Lions' score than the margin of victory. Given that Lions scored 88 points last week (only 5 lower than last week), it probably explains why the average player ratings are so close.

So while the Lions won well, the stats suggest the overall performance wasn’t drastically better than last week. These numbers probably say more about Hawthorn’s struggles than they do about a Lions surge.

After a few rollercoaster weeks, Charlie Cameron returned with a vengeance — posting the best Lions rating of the game with 23.1. Understandable too, given his three quick goals (at 100% accuracy), his relentless pressure in the forward 50, and a very tidy 79% disposal efficiency. A textbook high-efficiency small forward game that directly impacted the scoreboard.

Elsewhere, Hugh McCluggage continued his excellent form, racking up 17 contested possessions and 8 inside 50s. He’s been quietly keeping the midfield engine ticking all season and still seems underrated, by both opposition teams and the AFL generally.

Logan Morris and Darcy Fort both had better games than usual, while Ryan Lester continues to make a strong case to keep his spot ahead of Tom Doedee.

At the other end of the scale, the various AFL algorithms didn’t show much love to Noah Answerth, despite his clear role in keeping The Wizard (aka Nick Watson) quiet all match. The unfortunate reality is that while he had a number of clean possessions, most were uncontested and didn’t influence the scoreboard. But it’s well known that the ratings system has a blind spot for this kind of defensive role, so I wouldn’t read too much into the low number.

Kai Lohmann’s season continues to be a bit of a disappointment. In fairness, it’s been a disrupted one, but he’ll need to find another gear soon if he wants to keep his place, there are some very good players champing at the bit to force their way in.

The rating point differentials reinforce this story (see Figure 3).Charlie Cameron and Hugh McCluggage delivered standout performances, far exceeding their usual output, with strong support from Ryan Lester and Darcy Fort. Their spikes suggest key moments of scoreboard impact, contested wins, and clean execution. Meanwhile, underperformances from Wilmot, Lohmann, and others highlight that this win came off the back of a few high-impact contributors, rather than a consistent full-team lift.

That’s all from me this week — thanks for reading as always!