2025 Round 8: Rainy with a Chance of Charlie

Round 8, 2025: Brisbane Lions 9.12 66 defeated  Gold Coast Suns 7.7 49 at The Gabba, Brisbane.

I rolled into the Gabba hoping for a good contest against the rising Suns from down the highway, but unfortunately, it wasn’t a game for the ages. Intermittent rain made the match a bit of a slog.

We can see from the average player ratings that this was perhaps the Lions' second-worst game of the season — but we won! So I’m happy.

The first quarter was passable in terms of spectacle, with a lot of tough hits between the teams, including an epic Rayner tackle on (I believe) Touk Miller. But otherwise, the game was pretty dour.

One huge positive was the return of Charlie Cameron. I had mentioned to a friend seconds before his first goal that I’d “forgotten the lyrics to Country Roads,” but Charlie soon reminded us all of his explosive best — kicking three goals. He probably would have been best on ground if he had converted a few of the other clear-cut chances he had. But overall, a very welcome return to form.

The AFL Player Ratings, though, tell a slightly different story from what I experienced at the ground. Let’s take a look.

While Will Ashcroft took home the Marcus Ashcroft Medal, the player ratings algorithm ranked Lachie Neale’s game slightly higher — likely due to how the model evaluates impact and pressure acts.

Ashcroft generated more disposals, but Neale laid twice as many tackles (6 vs 3), indicating a more active role in applying pressure. He also finished with one more clearance, which the ratings likely weight heavily. When all’s said and done, Neale just edged Ashcroft — but only just.

Elsewhere, Hugh McCluggage and Harris Andrews had solid all-round games, relatively speaking. Overall, the Lions defenders played exceptionally well.

Two surprises in the player rankings were the relatively high placing of Conor McKenna and the low rating for Josh Dunkley.

McKenna was impressive in a more subtle role, often tasked with limiting Mac Andrew’s influence (after Sam Day went off injured early). He also kicked a goal and delivered 5 inside 50s — equal third on the ground — and racked up 246 metres gained from just 9 disposals. That kind of high-impact, low-volume performance is exactly what the ratings model tends to reward.

Josh Dunkley, on the other hand, is a bit of a puzzle — and perhaps reflects a common criticism of the AFL Player Ratings: that they don’t give enough credit to players who shut down their direct opponents. His stat line was decent: 26 disposals, 6 tackles, 462 metres gained, and 6 inside 50s. But he had just 3 clearances (compared to Neale’s 10) and only 10 contested possessions (vs Ashcroft’s 17).

Despite his inside 50s, none were converted into goals. That may be due to poor finishing up forward, but it's possible he struggled to deliver the ball into dangerous areas (e.g., long bombs to packs). The ratings tend to discount those kinds of entries.

Still, I can’t help but feel he was hard done by — many would have had him as best on ground. Myself included!

There were a few other oddities too — like Eric Hipwood, who I thought did a solid job leading the line solo. He also made some great defensive efforts, including at least two holding-the-ball tackles that earned us frees.

Looking at the player rating differentials, most Lions played below their usual standard, which matches what I saw live. The wet conditions probably didn’t help.

Anyway — roll on to North Melbourne next week. I’m hoping a full-strength side can really put the Kangaroos to the sword and give our percentage a healthy boost.

For now though... we’re top of the ladder!