Will Ashcroft is good. But is he great?

Two premierships and two Norm Smith medals at 21 is already an outstanding AFL career. But how does Will Ashcroft compare to the competition's elite midfielders?

Will Ashcroft is considered one of the crown jewels in the stacked Brisbane Lions team and many would point to him as one of the core reasons for the team’s recent premiership successes.

But should we consider him one of the competition’s elite midfielders?

Even myself, as a dyed-in-the-wool Lions fan, am somewhat skeptical. At the time of writing, I’ve just watched him put in a decent last quarter against a tired St Kilda to help the Brisbane Lions post their first win of the 2026 season.

But still, is he good? Very good? Yes! But is he a top ten midfielder? Umm, probably not quite yet.

In this piece, I want to go beyond the highlights and the headlines and actually interrogate what the data says about Will Ashcroft. 

Using player rating data and a range of performance metrics, I'll argue three things. 

1. First, that Ashcroft's finals form is genuinely elite and the Norm Smith medals are likely deserved. If he performed like he did during the 2025 finals series, he would be a top 3 player in the game easily.
2. Second, that his regular season output, while above average, falls short of what we'd expect from a true top-ten midfielder. 
3. And third, that there are specific, identifiable gaps in his game, particularly in how much he does with the ball once he has it, that he'll need to close if he's to be considered in the same conversation as players like Marcus Bontempelli, Nick Daicos and Zak Butters.

The good news for Lions fans is that his trajectory is positive, and the blueprint for his next step is already visible in the data. Lets dive into some data by looking at how Ashcroft's player ratings chart in regular season versus finals.

As the figure above shows, Ashcroft’s rating lifts by approximately 7 points come finals time, a jump that moves him from solid above-average midfielder into genuine elite territory. 

And here’s what makes that interesting: he doesn’t suddenly get more of the ball. His disposal count in 2025 was almost identical in the regular season and finals. What changed was how he damaging he became with the ball once he got it in his hands.

His clearances jumped 27%, his metres per disposal lifted 53%, his inside 50s nearly doubled. In short, he influences the game more directly in finals, driving more scoring opportunities for Brisbane rather than simply moving the ball on. 

Across the 2024 and 2025 finals series, Brisbane won 7 of the 8 games Ashcroft played in. And in the games where his rating exceeded 17, they won every single one. 

That's the version of Will Ashcroft that makes Brisbane genuinely dangerous in September. But he hasn't been able to consistently replicate that damaging form during the regular season.

Almost, But Not Quite

In 2025, Ashcroft averaged 11.7 player rating points during the regular season, placing him 33rd of 123 midfielders. Above average but not in the top quarter.

To put that in context, the top echelon contains the names you’d expect: Anderson at 17.6, Green at 17.2, Rowell at 17.1. Even his Lions teammate Hugh McCluggage, at 15.5, sits comfortably above him.

Ashcroft does not crack the top 25% of midfielders in regular season football. That is the uncomfortable truth that sits behind the premiership medals.

It is worth noting that Ashcroft is not alone in this bracket. Harry Sheezel at North Melbourne tracks almost identically in terms of career trajectory and average rating. Both are genuinely good midfielders, consistent, competitive, and clearly capable of elite performances. They are just not yet doing it week in, week out.

Ashcroft’s 2026 start has probably been disappointing given what we saw from him in the 2025 finals. A decent Opening Round against the Bulldogs, 30 disposals and a 12.8 rating, was followed by a difficult afternoon at the SCG against Sydney, where he managed just 21 disposals and a 5.4 rating. 

He bounced back against St Kilda in Round 3 with 31 disposals and 10 clearances, including a dominant last quarter that helped Brisbane secure their first win of the season. Across three games his average sits at 9.6, right at the competition median.

However, inconsistency is the central challenge. If Ashcroft could replicate his 2025 finals form across an entire regular season, the data suggests he would rank as one of the best midfielders in the competition. That is the scale of the gap between what he is and what he can be.

With McCluggage currently sidelined, the Lions need Ashcroft to be more than a contributor. They need him to be a driver. The data is clear on what he can be. Whether he gets there consistently is the question that will define his career.

Near the Top of His Generation

At 61 games of AFL football, Ashcroft is still relatively young by AFL standards, and it is worth acknowledging that before drawing too many conclusions. Career development in the midfield takes time, and the best comparisons are players who debuted around the same era.

When we plot player ratings against age across the under-22 midfielder cohort in 2025, Ashcroft sits in a respectable position, tracking similarly to George Wardlaw (10.3) and Josh Weddle (10.3). But he remains some way behind Nick Daicos (15.2) and Finn Callaghan (15.6), both of whom have clearly separated themselves from the rest of their generation.

Any comparison between Ashcroft and Daicos feels premature based on the data. Daicos is a generational talent and the figure above makes that gap visually obvious.

But what the figure does show should be encouraging for Lions fans: Ashcroft is tracking well above most of his age cohort. 

The more instructive comparison might be Finn Callaghan, who made a significant step up in the second half of 2025. Ashcroft, at 50 regular season games, is at a similar career stage to where Callaghan was when that jump occurred.

So where specifically does Ashcroft need to improve?

Breaking down his performance metrics across the past three seasons alongside relevant peers begins to show where he is strong and where the gaps remain.

These metrics tell a nuanced story. 

Ashcroft’s contested possession rate and clearance numbers are improving steadily, which is genuinely encouraging. But the bottom two charts are where the challenge becomes clear. 

His score involvements per disposal and metres per disposal consistently lag behind his peers, and that is ultimately what separates a good midfielder from a damaging one.

When you index Ashcroft’s 2025 regular season metrics directly against the top 11 midfielders in the competition, the picture sharpens. 

Disposal efficiency is the one area where Ashcroft genuinely matches the elite. Everything else has a gap, and the two largest — metres per disposal and inside 50s — are precisely the metrics that his finals performances show he is capable of closing.

The Blueprint Is Already There

The gap between what Ashcroft is and what he can be is not a mystery.

The finals data has already shown us the player he is capable of becoming: one who drives his team forward, converts possession into scoring opportunities, and dominates when the pressure is highest. 

In that version of himself, he is not a top-ten midfielder. He is arguably the best.

But that version has only consistently shown up four games a year. In the regular season, the metrics are clear. His ball use is shorter, his forward impact lower, and his overall rating places him 33rd of 123 midfielders. Good. Not elite.

A useful and instructive parallel is Finn Callaghan. In his first 40 regular season games Callaghan averaged 10.4 player rating points, remarkably similar to where Ashcroft sits today. After game 40 that average jumped to 14.3. Something clicked. Ashcroft, now at 50 regular season games, is overdue a similar moment where his regular season impact becomes not just more frequent, but more damaging.

The Norm Smith medals are not flukes. They are a signal of what is possible. 

Whether the regular season version of Will Ashcroft catches up to the finals version is the question that will define his career. The data says it is possible. 

With Brisbane's 2026 season already showing signs of inconsistency, the emergence of über-Ashcroft may need to happen sooner rather than later if a third straight premiership is to remain a realistic ambition.